The Skill Being Assessed
As a manager of physical and infrastructure assets, your primary responsibility is to ensure the reliability and longevity of critical systems. For a municipal water utility, this means managing an extensive and aging network of underground water mains. Historically, utilities have operated in a reactive "break-and-fix" mode, which is costly, disruptive, and inefficient.
This assessment challenges you to apply the skill of predictive modeling. You will use historical data to forecast which water mains are most likely to fail. This allows you to shift from a reactive to a proactive maintenance strategy, enabling targeted, data-driven decisions for repair and replacement schedules. Mastering this skill is essential for optimizing budgets, minimizing service disruptions, and ensuring the sustainable management of public infrastructure.
Your Task
You are an Asset Management Analyst for the City of Northwood Water District. The Director of Public Works has initiated a pilot program to move from reactive to proactive maintenance for the city's aging water main network. Your task is to use the provided data to build and evaluate a predictive model that forecasts which pipes are most likely to fail.
Your final deliverable is a two-page memo addressed to the Director. The memo must: 1. Briefly describe your methodology (data preparation, model used). 2. Summarize your model's performance using appropriate evaluation metrics. 3. Provide a prioritized list of the top 10 water main segments recommended for proactive inspection and potential replacement, justified by your model's findings.
Resources and Data
To complete this task, you are provided with a project kickoff memo from the Director of Public Works and a dataset containing the city's water main inventory and historical failure data.
Project Kickoff Memo: This document outlines the strategic goals and expectations for the predictive maintenance pilot program.
Key Document: Memo: Proactive Water Main Replacement Initiative
Water Main Data Set: This file contains records for 500 segments of water mains. It includes physical attributes of each pipe and a record of whether it has failed in the last five years.
City of Northwood Water Main Inventory and Failure History
| pipe id | install year | diameter inches | material | soil type | pressure psi | historical breaks count | failed in period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WM-1001 | 1948 | 8 | Cast Iron | High | 75 | 3 | 1 |
| WM-1002 | 1955 | 12 | Cast Iron | High | 65 | 4 | 1 |
| WM-1003 | 1962 | 6 | Cast Iron | Medium | 80 | 2 | 1 |
| WM-1004 | 1970 | 10 | Ductile Iron | High | 90 | 2 | 1 |
| WM-1005 | 2012 | 12 | PVC | Low | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1006 | 1998 | 8 | Ductile Iron | Low | 70 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1007 | 1959 | 6 | Cast Iron | Medium | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| WM-1008 | 2005 | 10 | PVC | High | 95 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1009 | 1985 | 16 | Ductile Iron | Medium | 60 | 1 | 0 |
| WM-1010 | 2018 | 8 | PVC | Low | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1011 | 1968 | 12 | Cast Iron | Low | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| WM-1012 | 1992 | 6 | Ductile Iron | Medium | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1013 | 1975 | 10 | Ductile Iron | High | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| WM-1014 | 2008 | 12 | PVC | Medium | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1015 | 1965 | 8 | Cast Iron | High | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| WM-1016 | 2001 | 10 | Ductile Iron | Low | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1017 | 1988 | 8 | PVC | Medium | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1018 | 1942 | 12 | Cast Iron | Low | 60 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1019 | 1995 | 18 | Ductile Iron | Medium | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| WM-1020 | 1952 | 8 | Cast Iron | High | 70 | 2 | 0 |
Submit Your Work
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Next Steps
Excellent work applying your predictive modeling skills to a real-world infrastructure challenge. You have successfully translated data into an actionable plan, a core competency for any asset manager.
When you are ready, please navigate back to the course to continue your learning journey.